Will Today’s NFP and Powell Speech Push the Dollar Lower?

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1. Will Today’s NFP and Powell Speech Push the Dollar Lower? 

The USD lost some further ground against its key rivals and is likely awaiting the speech by Powell which will have a far greater impact than this afternoon’s NFP. Participants will focus on whether the Fed chair will say anything that may hint an easing cycle continuation which could push the USD even lower today. The EUR  pushed through the 1.0960 and was rejected at the 1.10 which could be retested today on weaker NFP results. The GBP also gained on the USD weakness while the proposal of PM Johnsons was considered as falling far short for the required conditions for a deal.


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2. Risk Appetite Returns, But is it Meant to Last?

Meanwhile, a slight return of risk appetite is expected in the markets today as the services ISM in the US came in softer yesterday but remained above 50 and gave markets hope that things were not as bad yet. We saw stock markets experience a turnaround relief rally, however, can it really last? The combination of an inverted yield curve and a manufacturing PMI sub 50 now could put the Fed on the track of further easing which makes the perfect recipe for a recession ahead.


3. Oil Prices Recover

Oil futures edged higher on Friday but were on track for a large weekly loss on fears that slower global economic growth will hurt fuel demand, while Saudi Arabia said it has fully restored oil output after recent attacks. Crude Oil tested the low at $50.60 and could find some support on USD weakness if NFP and Powell deliver rather USD weakening catalysts today.


4. Gold Breaks Above $1500, BTC Set to Tumble  

Safe-haven gold continues to attract investor interest amid the broader market havoc, XAU/USD managed to achieve a daily positive candle yesterday despite the turnaround in stock markets and is well above the $1,500. With all the uncertainties around gold remains to look like an excellent buy the dips type of asset. Elsewhere, BTC was not even close to tackling the 200-day SMA and could be challenged to fall below the 8k soon again if there is no bullish intervention which seems quite improbable at the moment.



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Financial Times Oct 4, 2019 03:07 AM ET
Reuters Oct 4, 2019 3:53 AM ET
CNBC Oct 4, 2019 2:48 AM ET
Bloomberg Oct 4, 2019 05:20 AM ET

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