Oil Prices Rally On US/China Trade Deal Hopes

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1. Oil Prices Rally On US/China Trade Deal Hopes
The week started with a fresh oil price rally on Monday, on reports that the United States and China are close to ending their trade disputes. Meanwhile, supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell to a four-year low in February. International Brent futures (CL_BRENT) were at $65.18 a barrel at 8:00 GMT, up or 0.2 percent, from their last close.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (USOIL) crude futures were at $55.92 per barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent.*

2. Gold Continues To Tumble
Gold prices edged lower in Monday trading, after already falling below the critical $1,300 level to their lowest since Jan. 25 in the previous session. The XAU/USD noted a brief rally in early morning trading after the US dollar softened on prospects of a trade deal between China d the United States. The dollar’s weakness pushed XAU/USD slightly higher but the noble metal tumbled shortly after as the dollar recovered, spot gold was last seen trading at $1291.47, or 0.16% lower as of 8:05 GMT this morning.**

3. Trump Tries To Push The Dollar Lower
The U.S. economy is doing well in spite of the actions of the central bank, President Trump said during a wide-ranging speech at CPAC 2019. Trump noted: “We have a gentleman that likes raising interest rates in the Fed, we have a gentleman that loves quantitative tightening in the Fed, we have a gentlemen that likes a very strong dollar in the Fed. […], I want a strong dollar, but I want a dollar that’s great for our country not a dollar that is so strong that it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations.” Trump’s statements did little to tackle the USD strength; after a very short-lived USD softness this morning, the dollar swiftly recovered adding as much as 0.3% against the euro. EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.1345 or 0.26 percent lower as of 8:30 GMT. What is more, the U.S. currency is poised to remain strong this year despite Trump’s complaints about its recent gains as Treasuries remain the best option for yield-hungry investors and growth elsewhere is lackluster, according to money managers including Grant Samuel Funds Management Pty and QIC Ltd.***

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This Week’s Most Important Upcoming Events

Monday, March 4, 2019                                                                                                       
09:30  GBP Construction PMI (Feb)
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
03:30  AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
03:30  AUD RBA Rate Statement  
09:30  GBP Services PMI (Feb)
15:00  USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
15:00  USD New Home Sales (Dec)
15:00  CAD Ivey PMI (Feb)
15:35  GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks  
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
00:30  AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
13:15  USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
15:00  CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
15:00  CAD Ivey PMI (Feb)
15:30  USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, March 7, 2019
00:30  AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
12:45  EUR Deposit Facility Rate
12:45  EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility
12:45  EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
13:30  EUR ECB Press Conference  
23:50  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Friday, March 8, 2019
All Day Holiday Russia – Women’s Day
13:30  USD Building Permits (Jan)
13:30  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
13:30  USD Unemployment Rate (Feb)
13:30  CAD Employment Change (Feb)


This Week’s Upcoming Earnings Reports:

Name Symbol Next Earnings Date
Legal & General LGEN Mar 06, 2019
Linde LING Mar 07, 2019
Continental AG CONG Mar 07, 2019
Hugo Boss AG BOSSn Mar 07, 2019
Schroders SDR Mar 07, 2019
Aviva AV Mar 07, 2019


*Source: CNBC, Mar 4, 2019 2:48 AM ET
**Source: Forbes Mar 4, 2019 3:53 AM ET
***Source: Reuters Mar 4, 2019 03:07 AM ET


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