The banking sector started 2024 with a cloud of uncertainty looming over its outlook, primarily driven by expectations of a significant reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This anticipation dealt a heavy blow to their net interest margin projections, a crucial metric representing the variance between interest income derived from long-term assets like loans and interest expenses associated with short-term liabilities such as deposits.
However, as positive US economic indicators emerged, market sentiment shifted, predicting fewer rate cuts than initially feared. This boosted investor confidence, driving banking stocks to outperform the broader market. Despite this optimism, banks remain cautious. Potential losses in bond portfolios and challenges in dealmaking, especially in real estate, loom large.
With the Fed likely to initiate rate cuts, banks are exploring strategies like mergers and acquisitions to counter potential margin pressures in the future.
For JP Morgan, reigning as the top performer among banks in the fiscal year of 2023, has once again secured its position by achieving the most substantial annual profit in the history of US banking. Despite this remarkable feat, JP Morgan is poised to reveal some vulnerabilities during the current earnings season. The Wall Street giant is scheduled to release the latest data tomorrow, Friday April 12, before the US Markets open.
A slight downturn in earnings per share (EPS) for the banking giant is apparent, marking a consecutive quarterly decline of 3.91% compared to the previous year, with estimates hovering at $4.18. Nevertheless, JPM is anticipated to unveil a robust revenue figure of $41.83 billion, showcasing a commendable year-over-year surge of 6.36%.
Wednesday (April 10) saw a 0.9% decline in JPMorgan Chase shares, settling at $195.47, mirroring a wider dip in the US stock market. Over the past year, the stock has shown an impressive ascent, marking a remarkable 50% increase in value.
Reasons To Buy:
As the Federal Reserve signals its intention to maintain high interest rates in the near future, JPMorgan Chase & Co is anticipated to experience continued growth in its net interest income (NII) and net yield on interest-earning assets. Despite potential challenges stemming from increased funding and deposit costs, the bank’s strategic acquisitions and robust financial performance position it for success.
The acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023 significantly contributed to JPMorgan’s NII growth, which boasted a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% from 2018 to 2023. Projections for 2024 indicate a stable NII of approximately $90 billion, with marginal growth anticipated this year, followed by a slight decline and subsequent rebound in the coming years.
JPMorgan’s expansion efforts, both domestically and internationally, underscore its commitment to diversifying revenue streams and bolstering its digital banking capabilities. With plans to open over 500 new branches by 2027, the bank aims to solidify its position as the leading branch network in the United States while tapping into cross-selling opportunities across various sectors. Additionally, initiatives such as the launch of Chase, its digital retail bank, in the U.K., and expansion plans in the European Union and China highlight its global growth strategy.
Despite challenges posed by geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility, JPMorgan’s leadership in investment banking fees remains strong. While total fees experienced temporary declines in recent years, the bank is poised to capitalize on a rebounding market, driven by an active merger and acquisition landscape. Furthermore, its robust balance sheet, coupled with prudent capital distribution strategies including dividend increases and share repurchases, reinforce its financial stability and resilience in the face of economic headwinds.
Overall, JPMorgan’s strategic initiatives, coupled with favorable market conditions, position the bank for sustained growth and value creation in the foreseeable future.
Reasons to Sell:
JPMorgan, faces concerns over its reliance on capital markets for fee income. While 2022 saw improved trading performance due to heightened volatility and increased client activity, 2023 witnessed a decline of 4% in market revenues compared to the previous year. This volatility presents ongoing challenges, with expectations that market revenues will only marginally decrease in 2024 and potentially decline by 5-10% in the first quarter.
Additionally, the mortgage sector poses challenges as rising mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023 led to dismal performance in mortgage fees and related income. The demand for mortgage loans and refinancing declined steadily, resulting in a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.5% over three years. With mortgage rates expected to remain high, growth in origination volumes and refinancing activities is uncertain, indicating that a return to 2021-level performance is unlikely in the near future.
Furthermore, JPMorgan faces pressure from rising operating expenses, which have seen a five-year CAGR of 6.2%, excluding special charges incurred in 2023. Strategic acquisitions and technology upgrades, with annual spending exceeding $12 billion, are contributing factors. Additionally, the First Republic acquisition is expected to incur $2 billion in post-tax restructuring charges in 2023 and 2024. Management anticipates adjusted expenses to reach approximately $90 billion in 2024, with total non-interest expenses projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4% by 2026.
Despite these challenges, JPMorgan remains a formidable force in the financial sector, navigating market volatility and rising expenses while continuing to innovate and adapt to changing economic landscapes.
Technical Analysis:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is currently trading near its 52-week high, indicating strong bullish momentum in the stock. This aligns with the overall market trend, as the S&P 500 Index is also trading near new highs, suggesting that JPM’s performance is in line with broader market movements.
A notable technical pattern observed in JPM’s chart is a bull flag pattern, indicating a temporary consolidation phase following a strong upward movement in prices. This pattern often precedes another leg up in the stock’s price trajectory, presenting a potential entry opportunity for traders and investors.
Support Zone: Ranging from 194.87 to 195.46, this zone is significant as it is formed by a combination of multiple trend lines across various time frames. Any pullbacks to this zone may find support, potentially providing buying opportunities for traders.
Resistance Zone: Ranging from 195.94 to 200.31, this zone acts as a barrier to further price appreciation. It is formed by a combination of multiple trend lines and important moving averages across different time frames. Traders should closely monitor this zone as it may present challenges for JPM’s upward movement.
In summary, JPMorgan’s technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, supported by its proximity to its 52-week high and the presence of a bull flag pattern. However, traders should remain cautious of potential resistance levels and consider utilizing the identified support zones for strategic entry points.
References:
Tradingview JPM Daily Chart
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/
