Previous Trading Day’s Events (08 Jan 2024)
The U.S. inflation report is due later in the week, which will likely provide further clarity on how much room the Fed has to ease rates this year.
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Winners vs Losers
The USD has been showing some weakness after the NFP report. This week the USD pairs (USD as Quote) climbed to the top. GBPUSD is leading with 0.24% gains, followed by EURUSD having 0.15% gains so far.
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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (08 Jan 2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
No important news announcements, no special scheduled releases.
- Morning–Day Session (European and N. American Session)
The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged in December 2023 compared with the previous month. Inflation was +1.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. The average annual inflation reached +2.1% in 2023. CHF appreciated greatly against other currencies. EURCHF dropped near 20 pips at the time and reversed soon after.
General Verdict:
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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR
EURUSD (08.01.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
The pair moved fairly sideways with moderate volatility before the start of the N.American Session. At 9:30 it experienced a rapid but not significant movement to the upside after testing the support 1.0925 without success, staying close to the 30-period MA. It eventually climbed steadily as soon as the USD started to show weakness, reaching the resistance near 1.09790 before retracing to the mean.
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CRYPTO MARKETS MONITOR
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
Bitcoin traded around the mean near the 44K level. Volatility levels have dropped significantly in the last few days forming a triangle and consolidation phase. Friday was quite volatile being the NFP day, however, after that event Bitcoin did not experience any significant move and the price just moved sideways around the 30-period MA. This changed dramatically on the 8th Jan. The dollar started to retreat and Bitcoin jumped ahead of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) approval deadline reaching 47300 USD before retracing to the 61.8 Fibo level. This growing anticipation of imminent approvals of spot Bitcoin ETF is currently the main driver. The crypto market expects a green light by the 10th Jan deadline.
Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:
All Cryptos experienced gains with some reaching over 13% for the last 24 hours after strong expectations from the market that ETFs will be approved. Retracements have not significantly eliminated gains, Bitcoin stands currently just 280 dollars below the resistance near 47K USD.
Source: https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies
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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR
NAS100 (NDX) 4Hour Timeframe Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
Clearly, the downtrend was interrupted during the NFP report as the index (and the other U.S. benchmark indices) moved to the upside significantly crossing the 30-period MA on the way up and resulting in a rather sideways path after the volatility levels started to fall. A triangle formation formed after the news and the index was signalling that there might be a breakout to the downside. The support however proved to be strong enough. The index ( and all the other benchmark indices) experienced a surprisingly upward and rapid movement upon NYSE opening yesterday. The index reached the resistance at near 16600 USD before retracement took place. It is expected that it will be completed today with the price reaching the 61.8 Fibo level at least.
Analysis on TradingView:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NAS100/ahYJNRwU-NAS100-Retracement-09-01-2024/
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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR
USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
Crude Oil moves with high volatility around the 30-period MA in general. It recently tested the resistance levels near 74 USD/b on its way up but without success. An upward wedge was formed while the trend seemed to be upward. However, yesterday, on the 8th Jan., the price experienced a downward movement crossing the 30-period MA, a reversal to the downside. The price moved fast and reached the support near 70 USD/b before eventually retracing to the 61.8 Fibo level. This is a signal of a trend change and a probable sideways movement with high volatility for the near future.
XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
Gold’s price formed a triangle before the release of the NFP report on Friday and specific resistance and support levels were set as discussed in our previous analysis. During the news at 15:30, the USD appreciated greatly bringing Gold down rapidly causing it to reach the 2030 USD support before reversing quickly to the mean. The path continued to the upside after the shock since the dollar started to depreciate aggressively reaching the resistance of 2060 UD/oz before reversing for the second time again quickly back to the mean. Gold headed downwards testing the support levels below 2030 USD again and succeeded in a breakout to the downside reaching the next support at near 2017 USD/oz. This was a rapid drop and then, a retracement followed, back to the 30-period MA and the 61.8 Fibo level when support proved to be quite strong.
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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (09 Jan 2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
Inflation in Tokyo keeps slowing as per the report at 1:30, taking pressure off BOJ as the numbers get lower and lower for the second straight month in December. No major shock was recorded at the time of the release.
An upbeat of Aussie Retail Sales showed the report at 2:30. Retail sales increased by 2% instead of the expected 1.20% indicating improved risk appetite. No major impact on the market was recorded upon release.
- Morning–Day Session (European and N. American Session)
The monthly figure for the unemployment rate in Europe remains at 6.5% and it is not expected to change. It has remained at that level as interest rates remain high impacting the labour market and business conditions.
General Verdict:
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