Previous Trading Day’s Events (19.07.2024)
However, underlying inflation pressures have diminished hopes among investors for an interest rate cut on Aug. 1, the date of the BoE’s next scheduled monetary policy announcement.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/uk-retail-sales-fell-12-june-ons-says-2024-07-19/
Source:
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Winners vs Losers
Gold is moving upwards early this week marking 0.17% gains and leading this month with 3.43% performance so far. The USD strengthened for 2-days in a row causing USDCAD and USDCHF to move to the top of the week’s list.
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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (19.07.2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
No important news announcements, no special scheduled figure releases.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
At 9:00 the U.K. retail sales volumes (quantity bought) are estimated to have fallen by 1.2% in June 2024, following a rise of 2.9% in May 2024. Sales volumes fell across most sectors. Looking at the quarter, sales volumes fell by 0.1% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024, when compared with Quarter 1 2024, and fell by 0.2%, when compared with Quarter 2 2023. The GBP depreciated at that time but only for some time as the effect soon faded. The GBPUSD however is moving downwards steadily despite the low volatility. This is the second trading day that the pair is moving steadily to the downside.
At 15:30 the Canada retail sales report showed further declines in retail sales. Retail sales decreased 0.8% in May. Sales were down in eight of nine subsectors, led by decreases at food and beverage retailers. Core retail sales were down 1.4% in May. Following an increase of 1.2% in April, core retail sales were down 1.4% in May. The CAD depreciation
General Verdict:
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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR
EURUSD (19.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair started to move early to the downside since the USD was strengthening moderately. It reached support at near 1.08755 before it started to reverse to the upside and remained close to the 30-period MA within a range of 16 pips as it moved sideways until the end of the trading day. No significant releases took place, affecting the USD pairs.
GBPUSD (19.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair experienced volatility and the start of a downward movement after the release of the Retail sales report at 9:00. The GBP depreciated due to the fall in retail sales figures. This caused a rapid drop and after the pair reached the support near 1.29015 it eventually retraced to the 30-period MA. The pair remained close to the MA and on a sideways path for most of the remaining trading day.
USDCAD (19.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair was not experiencing much volatility during the Asian session, however it was moving steadily to the upside. After the start of the European session, it experienced more volatility but it was only at Canada’s retail sales report release at 15:30, that the pair started to move upwards rapidly following the CAD depreciation. The pair reached the resistance of 1.37480 before it eventually retraced to the 30-period MA and continued with a sideways path as volatility levels were lowering.
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CRYPTO MARKETS MONITOR
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary 1H
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
Since Friday, the 19th of July, Bitcoin moved to the upside rapidly reaching the resistance near 67,400 USD and remaining on a sideways path during the weekend near the mean at 67K USD. On Sunday Bitcoin moved to the upside breaking out from that range and reaching near 68,500 USD before retracing to the 30-period MA.
Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:
Cryptos have experienced a significant correction since mid-July. A strong reversal to the upside.
https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies
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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR
S&P500 (SPX500) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
On the 17th of July, we finally saw a breakout to the downside reaching 5,620 USD as per our forecast in our previous analysis. It, however, continued with the downside until it reached the support near 5,590 USD before it retraced moving upwards back to the 30-period MA. On the 18th there was another breakout after the stock exchange opening that caused a sharp drop to the 5,530 USD before an intraday retracement took place. The level 5,540 was acting as a strong support coinciding with the 161.8 Fibo level. That eventually broke too on the 19th causing the index to reach 5,500 USD before retracing to the MA. The RSI is showing a slowdown and if the index crosses the 30-period MA on its way up it could spark a jump.
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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR
USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
On the 17th Crude oil experienced a jump to the upside crossing the 30-period MA on its way up. After reaching the resistance at near 82.25 USD/b it retraced and reached the 61.8 Fibo level at near 81.30 USD/b. This rapid retracement forced the price to cross the MA on the 18th and reach the resistance area near 80.5 USD/b. It retraced back to the upside after that with another crossover but soon reversed again to the downside, settling near the 80.5 USD/b mean. As per our previous analysis forecast, Crude oil dived on Friday, a drop of nearly 2.6 USD/b. No retracement took place and that’s why today there is now potential for that, completing a mean reversion with a target level of 79.45 USD/b.
XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
On the 12th the price continued with retracement after the previous day’s peak. When it touched the 30-period MA it reversed to the upside to continue with a sideways path. A triangle formation was apparent as we mentioned in our previous analysis and a breakout to the upside led to the price reaching the resistance near 2,440 USD/oz. It broke that resistance on the 16th of July and moved further upwards. A triangle formation was apparent recently as depicted on the chart. On the 18th that triangle was broken to the downside and Gold’s price dropped sharply. On the 19th that drop continued steadily until it reached the support near 2,394 USD/oz with no retracement taking place the same day. On the 22nd the market opened with a gap upwards, however it seems that there is room for more future upward movement.
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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (22.07.2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Weekend
U.S. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on Sunday under growing pressure from his fellow Democrats and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s candidate to face Republican Donald Trump in the November election.
Source:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-81-pulls-out-presidential-race-2024-07-21/
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
China’s Central Bank cut its key short-term policy rate for the first time in almost a year, stepping up support for the economy after growth disappointed and steering a shift toward a new policy benchmark.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
No important scheduled releases.
General Verdict:
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