U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index notable declines, U.S. Consumer Confidence slightly drops with inflation expectations unchanged, Bitcoin suffers, U.S. dollar sees strength

Previous Trading Day’s Events (15.03.2024)

U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations were a little bit changed in March. However, it is notable that the overall Consumer Sentiment Index came down to 76.5 this month, compared to a final reading of 76.9 in February, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading.

“Consumers perceived few signals that the economy is currently improving or deteriorating,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu in a statement. “Indeed, many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy, particularly in the long term, pending the results of this November’s election.”

The survey’s reading of one-year inflation expectations was unchanged at 3.0% in March. The survey’s five-year inflation outlook held steady at 2.9% for the fourth straight month.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-sentiment-inflation-expectations-stable-march-2024-03-15/

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Winners vs Losers

USDJPY currently leads with 0.92% for the week followed by other JPY pairs (JPY as Quote) as the JPY is weakening as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, a pivotal change in monetary policy.

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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (15 Mar 2024)

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Midnight – Night Session (Asian)

No important announcements, no special scheduled releases.

Morning–Day Session (European and N. American Session)

According to firms responding to the March 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, business activity continued to decline in New York State, with a reporting index figure of -20.9. Demand softened as new orders declined significantly, and shipments were lower. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, and delivery times were little changed. Inventories declined.

The preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan showed that US consumer confidence dropped slightly in March. The report said: “Small improvements in personal finances were offset by modest declines in expectations for business conditions.”

General Verdict:

Bitcoin suffered from a fall. High volatility with the EUR being affected moderately and the USD being affected slightly. The Dollar Index moved around the mean closing almost flat.

Gold moved to the downside.

Crude oil closed near flat.

U.S. indices moved to the downside.

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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR

EURUSD (15.03.2024) 15m Chart Summary

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Price Movement

The pair moved to the upside near the start of the European session. EUR’s strengthening caused the sharp movement upwards and retracement followed. News for the dollar was not in its favour as the manufacturing sector seems to suffer and since consumer expectations lowered. This caused the EURUSD pair to remain high.

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CRYPTO MARKETS MONITOR

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary

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Price Movement

Bitcoin started to retreat significantly yesterday 14th March, especially after the news release for the U.S.

It reached near 74,000 USD this week but dropped heavily. Is this volatile downward movement a sign that the uptrend is over currently? Probably for some time.

Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:

The crypto market suffers ahead of the FOMC report.

Source: https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies

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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR

NAS100 (NDX) 4-Day Chart Summary

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Price Movement

On the 13th of March, the upward wedge was broken to the downside and the index dropped until the support at near 18,040 USD, moving below the 30-period MA on its way down. With the dollar appreciating further the drop continued on the 14th of March reaching the support near 17,950 USD before retracing to MA again. The 15th of March noted the confirmation of a downfall for U.S. indices as fears that there will be a cut delay grew, with borrowing costs to remain high in the future, and amid the U.S. dollar strengthening.

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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR

USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary

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Price Movement

A breakout of the resistance on the 13th of March caused its price to move away from the 78 USD/b level and reach higher at 79.5 USD/b. On the 13th of March, it started to see a price rise that was kept steady for two consecutive days causing the price to reach a peak near 81 USD /b. Retracement followed, back to near 80 USD/b. On the 14th March Crude oil continued to show that the trend is likely to continue upwards and after reaching the resistance near 81 USD/b it retraced to the 30-period MA.

XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary

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Price Movement

Gold will be pushed to the downside only if the Fed hints that there will be cut delays, following the hooter than expected inflation. Gold remained high as it moved to the upside on the 13th of March. The U.S. dollar (USD) weakened and Gold moved to the upside crossing the 30-period MA on its way up. A triangle formation was visible as volatility was lowering for Gold. On the 14th of March, Gold lowered due to the USD appreciation and reversed soon. Waiting for a triangle breakout. After a volatile Friday (15th March), significant support remains at 2,150 USD.

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