Previous Trading Day’s Events (28.05.2024)
More consumers believed that the economy could slip into recession in the next 12 months.
“Continued positive job growth, rising wages, an ebullient stock market and healthy household balance sheets will keep consumers spending despite elevated prices and borrowing costs,” said Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide.
The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index increased to 102.0 this month from an upwardly revised 97.5 in April.
Consumers’ inflation and interest rate views were likely coloured by a surge in price pressures in the first quarter. That, together with still-solid economic growth, has prompted financial markets to push back expectations for the first rate cut from the U.S. central bank to September from June. The Fed has kept its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July.
Source:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-confidence-unexpectedly-improves-may-2024-05-28/
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Winners vs Losers
Silver tops with 5.77% gains this week and a remarkable 21.83% for the month. AUD gained ground and USD tries to recover from the recent and sudden weakening.
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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (28.05.2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
The April 2024 seasonally adjusted estimate for retail sales in Australia rose 0.1% month-on-month according to the report at 4:30. That figure caused no significant impact on the market. The Australian Dollar continued to strengthen against the U.S. Dollar for the third consecutive session on Tuesday, despite the softer retail sales figure.
At 8:00 the core CPI figure in Japan was reported lower at 1.8%, down from 2.20%. After the release, the JPY suffered depreciation. The USDJPY moved upwards more than 20 pips.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
The CB Consumer Confidence figure for the U.S. was released at 17:00. The figures were showing a continuous decline since the start of the year but the report yesterday took the market by a surprise increase.
The market reacted with USD appreciation and the effect lasted until the end of the trading day.
General Verdict:
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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR
EURUSD (28.05.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
EURUSD has moved to the upside early due to USD’s early depreciation. Volatility levels were moderate and the pair moved around the 30-period MA until the news for the U.S. took place at 17:00. The higher Consumer Confidence figure had an impact on the dollar causing appreciation, thus EURUSD moved to the downside eventually.
USDJPY (28.05.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair was volatile and was clearly driven by the USD. JPY is usually affected by depreciation against the dollar and other currencies lately. As the USD gets stronger the pair moves more and more to the upside. In addition, core Inflation in Japan was reported lower than expected putting some pressure on the JPY.
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CRYPTO MARKETS MONITOR
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary 1H
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
Bitcoin settled near 70K USD on the 22nd of May. That changed later with Bitcoin moving rapidly to the downside on the 23rd after 16:00. Many assets including stocks and commodities got affected negatively after that time. The price returned back and settled near the 67K USD level wiping out the gains since the jump on the 20th of May.
The price eventually jumped on the 24th of May and continued its upward movement until the resistance at near 69,600 USD. It retraced during the weekend when volatility levels lowered.
After a period of consolidation during the weekend when the price experienced low volatility, Bitcoin saw a jump on the 27th of May reaching 70,6K but soon reversed heavily to the downside. After finding support at near 67,500 USD it retraced to the 30-period MA and remained close, settling near the 68K USD level.
Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:
The market got a boost from the approval of ETH ETFs by the SEC. However, on the 27th it saw a retreat. Currently, there is no movement in the market and prices remain low. Shiba Inu has been doing well the past 24 hours though with 12.6% gains.
Sources:
https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies
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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR
S&P500 (SPX500) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
PMI figures all indices dropped heavily on the 23rd of May. S&P500 reached support at near 5,258 USD before a strong retracement took place with an upward steady movement on the 24th of May. The index reached the 5,314 USD resistance that day before it retraced to the 61.8 Fibo level. On the 27th of May, it was a holiday in the U.S. and the stock market was closed. Indices did not experience much volatility, S&5P500 moved however slightly higher forming an upward wedge. The wedge was broken on the 28th and the index moved lower to the support around 5,280 USD before reversing to the 30-period MA. A downward path continued today on the 29th of May.
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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR
USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
On the 24th that support was at nearly 76 USD/b. After that, the price reversed to the upside, crossing the MA on its way up and reaching the resistance at near 77.90 USD/b. The RSI did not show strong bearish signals and retracement did not take place. The price instead continued to move upwards aggressively. An extension to output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day is the likely outcome, OPEC+ sources have said this month which raises expectations of a price increase.
Crude Oil emerging opportunity: A huge reversal takes place with the price passing 80 USD/b and the stop is uncertain. Using technical and a slowdown indicator we can identify the time that retracement will take place. From a BB perspective that stop could be around 81 USD/b but is not currently clear.
XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The support on the 22nd of May was broken and the price dropped heavily reaching the support at near 2,355 USD/oz. The downtrend continued until the price reached another important support at near 2,325 USD/oz on the 23rd of May and the potential for a retracement now is apparent with the target level at near 2,360 USD/oz. On the 24th of May, the price moved only slightly upwards but the potential for a further upward movement still remained as mentioned in our previous analysis. The price moved to the upside and completed the retracement to the 61.8 Fibo level and reached near the target of 2,360 USD/oz on the 27th of May. After finding resistance close to that level the price seems currently, on the 29th of May, to turn to the downside upon channel breakout as depicted on the chart.
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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (29 April 2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
Australia’s Inflation was reported higher than expected and shook the market as it turned away from the target level. The RBA is likely to delay rate cuts and maintain a tightening bias. Upon release of the 3.60% figure the AUD appreciated heavily and an intraday moderate shock took place. AUDUSD jumped near 15 pips before reversing eventually to the intraday mean.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
Waiting for the German Prelim CPI m/m figure release to see if eventually inflation is easing further in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and third-largest economy in the world. The EUR pairs could see a moderate shock upon release, especially if the figure is higher.
The Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released at 17:00 and it is expected to show an improvement in the figure. No major shock is expected at that time.
General Verdict:
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