Previous Trading Day’s Events (17.07.2024)
Services inflation – a gauge of domestic price pressure for the BoE which is also a problem in other European countries – was much higher than expected, and petrol prices rose.
“This is only one month’s data, but it is enough of a surprise to suggest that the inflation process is not tracking as the BoE had expected,” Allan Monks, chief UK economist at JP Morgan, said.
“There is still another labour market and CPI report to come before the June meeting, but it is difficult for us to see what that could realistically do to leave most members feeling confident about cutting in June specifically.”
Source:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inflation-rate-slows-23-april-2024-05-22/
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Winners vs Losers
Gold is gaining 2.44% this week and leads for the month as well with 6.14% gains. USD pairs follow (USD as quoted) since the dollar is losing strength.
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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (17.07.2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
At 1:45 the NZ CPI quarterly data release showed that New Zealand inflation slowed more than forecast to its weakest in three years in the second quarter. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.3% from 4% in the first quarter. CPI advanced 0.4% from three months earlier, less than the 0.5% estimate of economists. The NZD pairs experienced a moderate shock during the Asian session. The initial response was NZD depreciation followed by an immediate appreciation.
The Consumer Prices Index for the U.K. rose by 2.0% in the 12 months to June 2024 according to the report at 9:00. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.1% in June 2024, the same rate as in June 2023. The GBP appreciated after the release due to the beat in expectations.
The change in Crude oil inventories was reported -4.9M, a modest decline. However, there was no impact on the market other than a steady increase in Crude’s price.
General Verdict:
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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR
EURUSD (17.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair was moving sideways during the Asian session and with low volatility. That changed when the European session started with EURUSD experiencing a jump to the upside reaching the resistance at near 1.09460 before retracing to the 61.8 Fibo level. It eventually returned to the 30-period MA and remained on a sideways path until the end of the trading day.
GBPUSD (17.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair was affected greatly by the CPI inflation data release for the U.K. at 9:00. The figures were reported higher than expected causing the GBP to appreciate. The GBPUSD jumped to the resistance at near 1.30445 before retracing to the 30-period MA. The USD weakening had its role to play in this jump as well since the USD started to depreciate greatly after the European session started. Later it moved around the MA and sideways after that, until the end of the trading day.
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CRYPTO MARKETS MONITOR
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary 1H
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
On the 16th the price reached a strong resistance at 65K USD before retracing to the 30-period MA. It actually moved downwards and crossed the MA on its way down signalling the potential stop of the uptrend. The RSI is bearish. The price broke the 63K USD support and headed towards the 62K USD. However, it found support at near 62,500 USD and reversed continuing with the uptrend. It reached 66K USD on the 17th and reversed to the MA. If it starts to break intraday lows and the previous day’s lows then a rapid drop to 63K USD is probable.
Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:
The market has experienced a significant correction. Since June this year, the market has been suffering with most Crypto marking huge losses as it was not improving in July as well. After mid-July we see a huge comeback with a steady improvement. Will it be sustained? Currently, the market is signalling a slowdown.
https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies
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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR
S&P500 (SPX500) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
After the shock on the 11th, the market experienced another shock on the 12th after the release of the PPI data, Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. A jump occurred with the price finding resistance around 5,660 USD before retracing to the intraday mean. Huge volatility for the index last week as depicted on the chart. On the 15th the index closed higher after experiencing volatility and managed to form an upward wedge formation. On the 17th of July, we finally saw a breakout to the downside reaching 5,620 USD as per our forecast in our previous analysis. It, however, continued with the downside until it reached the support near 5,590 USD before it retraced moving upwards back to the 30-period MA
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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR
USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
A head and shoulders pattern was visible on the H4 chart. It was a weird pattern but eventually, the support at near 80.2 USD/b was broken. The neckline though was to be taken seriously into consideration since it indicated the importance of the 80.20 support level. After the breakout, the price reached the support at near 79.30 USD/b and a reversal took place soon after. The price settled near 80 USD/b for a while. On the 17th Crude oil experienced a jump to the upside crossing the 30-period MA on its way up. After reaching the resistance at near 82.25 USD/b it retraced and reached the 61.8 Fibo level at near 81.30 USD/b.
XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
On the 12th the price continued with retracement after the previous day’s peak. When it touched the 30-period MA it reversed to the upside to continue with a sideways path. A triangle formation was apparent as we mentioned in our previous analysis and a breakout to the upside led to the price reaching the resistance near 2,440 USD/oz. It broke that resistance on the 16th of July and moved further upwards. A clear uptrend. The level at 2,484 USD/oz looks like an important resistance since the price reached that level and immediately reversed to the MA. Now it is on a sideways path around the mean at 2,470 USD/oz.
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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (18.07.2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
At 4:30, Australia’s employment change figure was reported higher than expected while the unemployment rate ticked up as expected. The AUD appreciated for a short period of time before the effect faded. AUDUSD jumped just 16 pips before retracing back to the mean.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
At 9:00 the reports for the labour market condition in the U.K. showed that this month’s labour market figures continue to show signs of gradual cooling. The claimant count change was reported as higher than expected and average earnings figures lowered. Recent months saw decreases in estimates of employment from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and increases in estimates of payrolled employees from HMRC’s Real Time Information (RTI) data. The GBP initially was not affected by the news but soon it started to depreciate. GBPUSD dropped sharply and with volatile movements downwards after the news.
At 15:15 the ECB is going to decide on rates. It is expected that there will be no change in interest rates giving the Eurozone time to digest last month’s first cut since 2019 as the direction of inflation is quite uncertain. EUR pairs could be affected greatly.
Unemployment claims will be released later at 15:30 and the USD pairs could see more volatility. An intraday shock is not to be excluded.
General Verdict:
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