Previous Trading Day’s Events (12 Feb 2024)
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Winners vs Losers
Silver is on the top of the winner’s list with 0.60% gains for the week while USDJPY leads this month with 1.69% gains. Stable USD for now as the market prepares for the U.S. inflation reading today.
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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (12 Feb 2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
The Reserve Bank of Australia governor’s speech took place after 2:30, related to the November Financial Stability Report, speaking before the Finance and Expenditure Committee, in Wellington. The market experienced volatility and the NZD started to depreciate significantly. Major Impact statement: “Inflation remains elevated, leading to the maintenance of the 5.5% cash rate”. The NZD/USD edged lower despite the hawkish remarks.
- Morning–Day Session (European and N. American Session)
Several speeches from FOMC members took place during the N. American session causing more volatility than anticipated.
General Verdict:
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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR
EURUSD (12.02.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
The pair dropped heavily after the start of the European session as the USD experienced appreciation against other currencies. The drop continued until the support near the level 1.0757 was reached. Soon after, a reversal took place with the pair moving upwards, crossing the 30-period MA on its way up and reaching the resistance near 1.07860, before eventually retracing to the MA.
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CRYPTO MARKETS MONITOR
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
On the 7th Feb, Bitcoin moved to the upside aggressively. The momentum is quite strong as it seems to break all the Fibo levels, 100 and 161.8 without any significant retracement. Its price continued to the upside aggressively breaking further resistance and eventually reaching the strong resistance at near 48,900 USD, levels last seen during the SEC news regarding the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Despite the bearish RSI signals, Bitcoin surged on the 12th Feb breaking the 49,000 USD resistance, reaching the resistance near the 50,000 USD.
Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:
Strong gains for Cryptos as the market corrects from the recent unusual drop after the regulator’s spot Bitcoin ETF approvals. It even surpassed the highs. 17.04% gain for Bitcoin in the last 7 days.
Source: https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies
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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR
NAS100 (NDX) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
On the 6th Feb, the index did not manage to break the resistance at near 17,700 USD and a reversal again followed back to the support at near 17,500 USD. Another reversal sent the index back to the mean. A clear consolidation phase kept the index on the sideways, however experiencing high volatility on the way. On the 7th Feb, the index moved higher breaking the triangle as depicted on the chart and settling near 17,790 USD. On the 8th Feb, the index did not experience strong volatility closing the trading day almost flat, however, on the 9th Feb, it moved to the upside aggressively reaching the area near the 18,000 level. After 20:00 on the 12th Feb the market started the downfall amid the important inflation news, risk-off mood.
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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR
USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
Crude’s price reversed from the downtrend following the RSI’s signals of bullish divergence, as mentioned in the previous analysis. After it reached 74.5 USD/b on the 5th Feb, it reversed to the upside, crossing the 30-period MA on the way up and finding resistance at near 73.2 USD/b before retracing. On the 6th Feb, the price moved steadily upwards while being above the 30-period MA. The same happened on the 7th Feb. Surprisingly, crude oil moved significantly higher on the 8th Feb after it broke the apparent channel, as depicted on the chart, reaching the resistance near 76.5 UD/b. On the 9th Feb, the price remained on the same level after a quite volatile trading day. On the 12th Feb Crude oil continued with the upward path. Let’s see how things will change when the dollar will be affected during the inflation news today.
XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
Price Movement
On the 8th Feb, Gold broke the upward channel moving to the downside and reaching the support 2020 USD/oz after the USD experienced strong early appreciation. It closed the trading day almost flat since the USD lost strength significantly causing Gold’s price to reverse fully. On the 9th Feb, it experienced another drop testing again that support at near 2020 USD/oz. After an unsuccessful breakout, it eventually retraced to the Fibo 61.8 level. On the 12th Feb Gold dropped further but on the 13th Feb it finally experienced a rapid upward movement amid the strong-anticipated inflation news.
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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (13 Feb 2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+02:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
In New Zealand, the annual CPI inflation for the December 2023 quarter was measured at 4.7%, a decline from last quarter’s 5.6% annual inflation. Respondents’ expectations for CPI inflation have declined across short, medium, and long terms. The two-year-ahead, five-year-ahead and ten-year-ahead annual inflation expectations decreased from last quarter’s mean estimates and remained within the 1- 3% inflation target band. At the time of the release the NZD started to depreciate significantly. NZDUSD dropped near 30 pips during that time and retracement followed.
- Morning–Day Session (European and N. American Session)
At 9:00, several figure releases took place for the United Kingdom. The early estimate of payrolled employees for January 2024 increased by 48,000 (0.2%) on the month and increased by 413,000 (1.4%) on the year. Wages & bonuses were reported stronger than expected, (5.8%) but cooler than last month (6.7%). Unemployment rate was reported down (3.8%) and claims also reported better, at 14.1K. The market reacted with an initial GBP appreciation. The GBPUSD jumped near 20 pips at that time but it soon reversed after finding resistance.
The Swiss consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in January 2024 compared with the previous month.
During the CPI data / Inflation report for the U.S. at 15:30 on the 13th Feb, the USD will be probably greatly affected. An intraday shock is expected to take place at that time. With the Fed stating that cuts will take place even if inflation is not lowering, great uncertainty is created. The yearly inflation figure is expected to be reported lower. A surprise to the upside is going to cause probably a great shock, causing the USD to strengthen significantly, at least during the time of the report release
General Verdict:
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