EURUSD: Pressure continued EURUSD that fell today to $1.0891, the lowest in two months. It is correct that ECB is likely to cut the rates on Thursday rate decision, however such a decision was already priced in and the traders must focus on the monetary policy forward guidance. Industrial production & economic sentiment index from EZ will be released later today.
Price action broke the second support, edging lower to the last one which is likely to be executed today, then $1.0845. The technical diagram is almost done, so the reversal may happen soon.
USDJPY: Two consecutive days of the positive performance in this currency pair that traded unchanged today at 149.73, the highest since the beginning of August/2024. While the Japanese officials are not worried about the weakness of the Yen, Japan’s CPI numbers after few days will be vital in BoJ rate decision. As China kept injecting cheaper liquidity, Japan is unlikely to target stronger Yen for now. Japan’s industrial production will be due later today.
Price action is still heading higher, targeting the last major resistance (executed ) then 150. 147.50 & 146 are important support levels. Positive channel persists.
GBPUSD: GBPUSD traded lower today at $1.3049, waiting for the unemployment rate & average earnings later today. BoE’s governor Bailey suggested that if inflation pressures continue to ease then BoE may take more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts. The Interest rate in the UK stays at 5% now.
Trading remained sideways ( 1H RSI is at 50 ) and likely to continue amid tight volatility until today afternoon. Keep an eye on $1.3130 (resistance) and $1.3020 ( support for day-traders).
Gold: Gold traded slightly weaker today at $2644 per ounce, but still up by 0.86% in a week and more than 2% in a month. Stronger USD continued but gold was not much affected by USD index’s last strength, because demand for gold remained stable, supported by China’s cheaper liquidity and more dovish stance by the major central banks.
Correction may continue to $2637 (we said that yesterday) then $2630 ( 1H chart) amid daily speculation . Daily chart does not support heavy correction.
Silver: Traders in silver are likely to wait for China’s growth & industrial production numbers on Friday before positioning their bets. Silver fell today by -0.64% & traded at $31.02 per ounce. What matters to silver traders is not the next rate cut by the Fed (likely by next month ) but the outlook of the demand from China & developments in EV & renewable industries.
1H chart supports further losses to $30.45 then $30.25 . At the same time, such a correction ( if happens) is likely to be short-lived, not to shape a new bearish trend.
OIL: Oil extended its decline for the third consecutive session, WTI & Brent lost by more than -3% today, WTI traded at $71.08PB, Brent $74.57PB. Yesterday, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecasts for 2024/2025, as data showed that crude oil imports from China fell by almost -3% YoY in the first nine months of this year, that’s why we clarified before that the geopolitical tensions will not be enough for sustainability in oil prices.
$72.90 is the support for day-traders, then $71.80 ( both are executed ) then $69.90 .Price action remained bearish as the traders’ behavior showed. Higher volatility will persist, & intervention may happen ( OPEC members).
DAX: German DAX index closed higher by 0.7% on Monday, new record high at 19501, driven by Airbus 1.8%, Allianz 0.6% & SAP 1.3% as investors are fully focusing on ECB rate cut & ECB outlook (Thursday). Economic sentiment index from Germany will be due later today. DAX futures are trading higher now.
More bullish attitude gained momentum, heading higher to the last major resistance ( which is done) , supported by the velocity of the price action. 19140 is support then 19035 ( correction – if any). New resistance- target was added.
NASDAQ: US stock futures traded higher this morning after Dow Jones & SPX closed higher on Monday at a new record highs, Nasdaq gained as well by 0.87% to the highest level in three months. Nine out of 11 sectors in SPX closed higher yesterday, led by tech , utilities & real estate. Coinbase rallied by 11.3%, as BTC gained as well. Keep an eye on many Fed’s members speech later today.
Price action slowed in the last few days, but positive momentum persisted. Daily chart is even more bullish than the hourly one, heading higher to the 2nd major resistance. 19700 is support ( profit taking & correction). Our bullish view was accurate.
BITCOIN: Bitcoin traded lower today & fell by -1.2% to $65230 after yesterday’s strong gains to $66K, the highest in two months. Eth fell today by -1.3%, followed by -1% loss in Binance & -1.8% in Solana. According to crypto News, institutional buying surges 266% in Ripple, XRP remained down by -8% in a month while BTC gained 12% in a month. Future blockchain & crypto summit started in Dubai, focusing on innovation vision & future endeavors.
Velocity intensified, strongly heading higher to the last major resistance (executed). Higher volatility ahead, so beware of the aggressive correction (if happens ) that may target $62500 & $61700 .
