Previous Trading Day’s Events (16.07.2024)
It did not change expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in September amid cooling inflation and helped to assuage fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy.
“The economy is in pretty good shape,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “There are signs of softness around the edges where low- and moderate-income consumers are pulling back … but openhanded spending by affluent consumers is keeping the economy as a whole moving forward.”
Retail sales increased 2.3% on a year-on-year basis in June. Momentum has, however, slowed from the 7.7% gain logged in January 2023. After a period of high inflation, households are trading down and seeking cheaper alternatives, as evident in earnings reports from major retailers and manufacturers.
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Winners vs Losers
Metals are still leading this week with Gold having 2.33% gains and Silver having 0.65% gains. Gold now takes the lead for the month having 6.02% gains.
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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (16.07.2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
At 15:30 the CPI data for Canada were released. Canada’s inflation slowed to 2.7% in June, slightly more than expected, down from a 2.9% gain in May. the CAD depreciated greatly at that time as an initial response. At the same time, the U.S. retail sales changes were reported showing improved activity. All figures were reported higher than expected. This caused USD appreciation. The USDCAD jumped nearly 43 pips during the release of all these figures.
General Verdict:
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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR
EURUSD (16.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair was moving sideways around the 30-period MA with low volatility until the news came out. At 15:30 the U.S. retail sales report showed that figures were certainly stronger than expected, especially the core figure. This caused the dollar to appreciate heavily and EURUSD dropped at that time sharply by nearly 30 pips. It retraced soon though back to the 61.8 Fibo level. After that level’s breakout, it moved significantly upwards crossing the MA again and closing the trading day high, above the MA.
USDCAD (16.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
The pair moved sideways around the 30-period MA until the European session started when it experienced more volatility. At first, the pair deviated greatly above the MA and soon before the news 15:30 it reversed to the downside crossing the MA on its way down until it found support at near 1.36640. At the time of Canada’s CPI data release the reported slowdown in inflation caused CAD depreciation. The retail sales report for the U.S. also caused the USD to strengthen and triggered a jump of the USDCAD near 43 pips. It found resistance at 1.37075 and retraced back to the MA soon after reaching the 61.8 Fibo level. Later during the N. American session moved lower until the end of the trading day.
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CRYPTO MARKETS MONITOR
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary 1H
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
Since the start of an uptrend, on the 12th of July, the price has continued steadily upwards. At the beginning of the week, on Monday 15th, the price jumped to nearly 63K USD. That is a remarkable recovery for Bitcoin’s price. On the 16th the price reached a strong resistance at 65K USD before retracing to the 30-period MA. It actually moved downwards and crossed the MA on its way down signalling the potential stop of the uptrend. The RSI is bearish. The price broke the 63K USD support and headed towards the 62K USD. However, it found support at near 62,500 USD and reversed continuing with the uptrend. It reached 66K USD today, 17th July, but the RSI is showing a slowdown.
Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:
The market has experienced a significant correction. Since June this year, the market has been suffering with most Crypto marking huge losses as it was not improving in July as well. Now mid-July we see a huge comeback with a steady improvement. Will it be sustained?
https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies
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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR
S&P500 (SPX500) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
After the shock on the 11th, the market experienced another shock on the 12th after the release of the PPI data, Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. A jump occurred with the price finding resistance around 5,660 USD before retracing to the intraday mean. Huge volatility for the index last week as depicted on the chart. On the 15th the index closed higher after experiencing volatility and managed to form an upward wedge formation. On the 17th of July, we finally saw a breakout to the downside that could lead the price near to 5,620 USD.
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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR
USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
During the U.S. inflation news on the 11th Crude oil prices saw some retreat but eventually reversed to the upside. After several tests of the resistance 82.10 USD/b, it finally broke that resistance. After finding strong resistance at near 82.5 USD/b the price reversed to the downside on the 12th breaking the triangle formation. The 80.2 USD/b support was reached as per our forecast in our previous analysis. A head and shoulders pattern was visible on the H4 chart. It was a weird pattern but eventually, the support at near 80.2 USD/b was broken. In yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that this could take place even though the head and shoulders pattern was not apparent. The neckline though was to be taken seriously into consideration since it indicated the importance of the 80.20 support level. After the breakout, the price reached the support at near 79.30 USD/b and a reversal took place soon after. Now the price settled near 80 USD/b.
XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
Price Movement
On the 12th the price continued with retracement after the previous day’s peak. When it touched the MA it reversed to the upside to continue with a sideways path. A triangle formation was apparent as we mentioned in our previous analysis and a breakout to the upside led to the price reaching the resistance near 2,440 USD/oz. It broke that resistance on the 16th of July and moved further upwards. A clear uptrend.
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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (17.07.2024)
Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)
- Midnight – Night Session (Asian)
No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.
- Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)
At 1:45 the NZ CPI quarterly data release showed that New Zealand inflation slowed more than forecast to its weakest in three years in the second quarter. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.3% from 4% in the first quarter. CPI advanced 0.4% from three months earlier, less than the 0.5% estimate of economists. The NZD pairs experienced a moderate shock during the Asian session. The initial response was NZD depreciation followed by an immediate appreciation.
The Consumer Prices Index for the U.K. rose by 2.0% in the 12 months to June 2024 according to the report at 9:00. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.1% in June 2024, the same rate as in June 2023. The GBP appreciated after the release due to the beat in expectations.
General Verdict:
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